The latest data reveals that China, as the world's largest consumer of natural rubber, now has a self-sufficiency rate below 30%, crossing the internationally recognized safety threshold. This situation poses significant risks to the country’s rubber industry. Since 2003, China has been the top global consumer of natural rubber, and since 1998, its self-sufficiency ratio has steadily declined. In 2004 alone, China consumed 1.8 million tons of natural rubber, while domestic production reached only 570,000 tons, meaning less than one-third of its needs were met domestically. Last year, typhoon damage in Hainan, a major producing region, further reduced output, pushing the annual self-sufficiency rate below 30%. According to international standards, 30% is considered the minimum level for ensuring industrial security. Currently, over half of the raw materials used by China’s rubber industry come from natural rubber. If this supply becomes unstable, the entire sector could face a severe crisis.
China’s natural rubber production is heavily constrained by land availability. Only a small portion of the country—mainly in Hainan, along with some areas in Guangdong, Yunnan, and Guangxi—is suitable for rubber cultivation, with a total planted area of about 10 million mu. The long growth cycle of 6 to 7 years discourages large-scale investment, leaving most production in the hands of state-owned farms and small-scale farmers. Additionally, natural rubber is highly vulnerable to weather conditions such as typhoons and droughts. Many farmers lack advanced techniques, leading to poor quality, waste, and lower yields—up to 25-40% less per unit area compared to state farms.
Without clear national policies to support the development of overseas rubber resources, Chinese companies struggle to secure stable supplies. Meanwhile, major producers like Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia are intensifying their control over global rubber markets. These countries have imposed export restrictions on raw rubber and formed international cooperation groups, including Sanguo Rubber Co., Ltd., which aims to influence global prices. Together, the five main rubber-producing nations—Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and India—account for 90% of global natural rubber exports. Many consuming countries, such as Japan, are also investing in overseas rubber projects, offering financial incentives like discounted loans to local firms. Given these challenges, experts agree that "going out"—expanding into international markets—is a necessary strategy for ensuring China’s long-term rubber supply security.
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