China Drying Network News The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that the United States will gradually shut down a large number of coal-fired units, industry experts said that this news may cause a new round of impact on international coal prices, while the domestic investment continues to decline The coal-fired power plant is also not a good news.
According to foreign media reports, the Obama administration will continue to shut down coal-fired power plants, and it is expected to close 57 in 2012. The goal is to completely stop the coal industry in the United States. At the same time, EIA also said that 175 coal-fired generating units with a total generating capacity of 27 million kilowatts will be suspended between 2012 and 2016.
Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that it is unlikely that the United States will shut down a large number of coal-fired units. He said: "On the one hand, coal accounts for about 23% of the energy consumption structure in the United States, natural gas accounts for 27%, and oil accounts for about one-third. The United States does not want to increase the proportion of oil consumption, and nuclear power has not increased at present. Hydropower is basically not developed, renewable energy is only about 1.7%, which is basically a fixed energy structure in the United States, and natural gas has to replace coal, and it is impossible to increase a large proportion within a few years. On the other hand, the closure of coal-fired units The cost is also very large."
However, it cannot be denied that the news may have an impact on international coal prices. “The United States is the country with the largest coal reserves in the world. After the coal-fired power plant is shut down, coal can only be exported. If the global market hears that the country with the largest coal reserves will no longer use coal in the next few years, coal prices will go If you go down, you don’t need the United States to do anything,†Lin Boqiang said.
At present, there are about 500 coal-fired power plants in the United States. Although coal still supplies about one-third of the electricity in the country, it provided nearly half of the electricity four years ago. The long-standing close relationship between coal and power utilities is beginning to alienate.
Tu Jianjun, director of the China Energy and Climate Program at the Carnegie Institute for International Peace, said that the United States's shutdown of thermal power is mainly governed by shale gas, air quality legislation, and possible greenhouse gas intensity regulations. “However, the basic shutdown is the small thermal power plant that has been operating for 50 to 60 years and has an average size of 150 megawatts. Because it is forced to stop these facilities through environmental legislation and market factors, there is no need for compensation.â€
With the declining domestic coal consumption in the United States, increasing exports to foreign markets becomes inevitable.
In recent years, large-scale development of shale gas has changed the energy landscape in the United States, and relatively cheap shale gas will gradually replace oil and coal. EIA stated in the "short-term energy market forecast report" that in 2012, the coal demand in the U.S. electricity industry will be below 900 million short tons (1 short ton = 0.017 tons), down to 884 million short tons, a drop of about 5% year-on-year. The proportion of coal-fired power generation to total power generation also fell from 42.2% to 40.4%.
Europe, as the traditional coal consumer market in the United States, has inhibited coal demand due to continued economic downturn and continuous escalation of environmental protection calls. On the contrary, Asian economies are relatively strong and have a considerable amount of coal demand. As a result, major coal users in Asia such as China, Japan and South Korea have become their export targets. CoalNet expects that the US will increase its coal exports by 16% in 2012, while European imports will fall by 1 million tons.
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in June this year, the total amount of imported coking coal was 6.49 million tons, an increase of 67.9% from the previous period and an increase of 94.4% year-on-year. Among them, 998,000 tons were imported from the United States, accounting for 15% of the total.
However, there are also industry insiders who are optimistic about the "shock" of the United States. Zhao Yuwei, director of operations of China Coal Resources Network, believes that the United States and the Asia-Pacific region have relatively long shipping distances. In the current low season of the shipping market, the freight rate is relatively cheap, but if the shipping market returns, the transportation costs will increase, with Indonesia, Australia and other traditions. Compared with the large export of thermal coal, there is not much advantage. In addition, there is a transitional period of closure, so there will be no direct impact on the Chinese market in the short term.
Zhao Yuwei is more worried about the impact of the US shutdown of coal-fired power plants on Chinese thermal power investment. “The United States leads the world in many aspects. Closing coal-fired units may cause some psychological impact on the development of domestic coal-fired power plants. Especially in the current situation where investment in coal-fired power plants continues to decline, power companies are even less motivated to invest. Therefore, this news may have a negative impact on China's development of coal-fired power plants."
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