The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote high-proportion methanol gasoline M85 and M100 in Minhang District, Shanxi, and Shaanxi Province from May this year. This move will bring a brighter color to the downstream demand for methanol. However, this move is only a drop in the domestic methanol industry, which is under multiple production forces, weak demand, and import shocks. In 2011, the industry trend remains confusing. Hu Qianlin, deputy secretary-general of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said in an interview with reporters this year that the methanol industry should adopt structural adjustments, develop methanol energy technologies and deep-processing new technologies, transform technological innovation into traditional industries, and actively eliminate backwardness. The production capacity has completely changed the predicament faced by the industry.
In 2010, although some newly-built installations in China's methanol industry were delayed due to uncertainties, the total methanol production capacity in the year is expected to reach 35 million tons, and the output will be approximately 15 million tons, with half of the excess capacity. It is understood that at the end of 2010, there were 25 methanol projects under construction that were originally planned to be put into operation in China, and the newly added annual production capacity was 8.61 million tons, which means that the national methanol production capacity will exceed 40 million tons in 2011, and the increase in production capacity is far greater than consumption. The increase in demand. In addition, there are 25 methanol projects planned or in the planning stage in China, with a total annual production capacity of 24.4 million tons. The continuous production of new and under construction equipment will further aggravate the domestic methanol excess capacity.
The impact of imported methanol still exists. Due to its low price advantage, imported methanol is still strongly impacting the domestic market. Last year, the Ministry of Commerce announced the results of the anti-dumping sanctions on methanol. Saudi Arabia, which imports the most, is not in the dumping category. There is no restriction on the channels of import sources in the Middle East, which makes the domestic methanol industry more disappointed. The Ministry of Commerce also decided to extend the investigation period by six months, that is, the deadline for the investigation of the case was December 24, 2010. Without the support of anti-dumping, the domestic methanol market will continue to slump.
The reason why the domestic methanol industry is seriously affected by imported methanol is that an important reason is that the methanol products in the Middle East are low-priced methanol produced from natural gas or oil field associated gas. Of the 180 domestic methanol production enterprises, only 23 are natural gas methanol production enterprises. The total annual production capacity is 6 million tons, accounting for only 29% of the domestic total methanol production capacity. The rest is more than 140 coal-to-methanol enterprises and 13 companies. Coke Oven Gas to Methanol Enterprise. Although there are many methanol production enterprises in China, the scale is generally small and the competitiveness is not strong. According to the "2010-2015 China's methanol industry investment analysis and forecast report" issued by China Investment Advisors, the average size of China's methanol companies is only about 120,000 tons per year, with an average annual output of only 60,000 tons, and the scale of the equipment is small. High consumption of energy and materials, unreasonable use of resources, and high investment per unit of production capacity have resulted in high production costs and lack of international competitiveness. In comparison, the largest methanol plant in the world has reached an annual production capacity of 1.7 million tons. Investment in unit production capacity has dropped significantly, and cost competitiveness has been greatly enhanced. In addition, foreign large-scale methanol plants mostly use natural gas as raw material, adopt natural gas two-stage conversion or autothermal conversion technology, and are more mature and reliable than coal-based methanol technology, and the conversion scale is less affected by the scale of methanol.
The market pattern of weak demand and difficult promotion of downstream products will not change much in 2011. As an important downstream dimethyl ether industry in the methanol industry, 2011 will also usher in a major bearish. The "National Standard for Town Gas Dimethyl Ether" will be formally implemented on July 1, 2011. This standard clearly stipulates that dimethyl ether can only be burned as a town gas, and it also requires dedicated bottles. The implementation of the "Standard" indicates that the road to dimethyl ether mixed with liquefied gas will be sealed, excess production capacity will be further aggravated, and the upstream methanol industry will be dragged down. Although methanol gasoline has occupied a market with unique advantages, it is expected that it will usher in a wide range of promotion in 2011, but the lack of policy is an insurmountable obstacle to the development of methanol gasoline. Only when the favorable policies are introduced, the spring of the industry is expected to emerge.
In addition, currently methanol downstream products, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, DMF, glyphosate and other varieties of serious excess capacity, including formaldehyde overcapacity of 32%, acetic acid surplus of 46%, DMF surplus of 50%, especially glyphosate At present, domestic production capacity has exceeded 22% of global demand, which directly led to weak demand and spread to the methanol industry.
In view of the current status of the methanol industry, Hu Qianlin proposed: First, actively promote the development of alcohol ether fuels, formulate and introduce low-proportion methanol gasoline, dimethyl ether mixed burning and other related alcohol ether fuel industry or national standards, open the application of alcohol fuel, Digest excess capacity. The second is to actively carry out methanol deep processing technology research, extend the product chain, when the methanol companies apply for downstream product projects, the state can give preferential policies to promote the development of downstream products as soon as possible, and stimulate the consumption of methanol. The third is to strictly control the total production capacity, take measures such as large-scale pressure, capacity replacement and other methods, eliminate backward production capacity, reduce costs and improve competitiveness. Fourth, vigorously support large-scale methanol and dimethyl ether enterprises with development potential to carry out technological transformation in terms of energy conservation and emission reduction, increase economic efficiency, and accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure.
In 2010, although some newly-built installations in China's methanol industry were delayed due to uncertainties, the total methanol production capacity in the year is expected to reach 35 million tons, and the output will be approximately 15 million tons, with half of the excess capacity. It is understood that at the end of 2010, there were 25 methanol projects under construction that were originally planned to be put into operation in China, and the newly added annual production capacity was 8.61 million tons, which means that the national methanol production capacity will exceed 40 million tons in 2011, and the increase in production capacity is far greater than consumption. The increase in demand. In addition, there are 25 methanol projects planned or in the planning stage in China, with a total annual production capacity of 24.4 million tons. The continuous production of new and under construction equipment will further aggravate the domestic methanol excess capacity.
The impact of imported methanol still exists. Due to its low price advantage, imported methanol is still strongly impacting the domestic market. Last year, the Ministry of Commerce announced the results of the anti-dumping sanctions on methanol. Saudi Arabia, which imports the most, is not in the dumping category. There is no restriction on the channels of import sources in the Middle East, which makes the domestic methanol industry more disappointed. The Ministry of Commerce also decided to extend the investigation period by six months, that is, the deadline for the investigation of the case was December 24, 2010. Without the support of anti-dumping, the domestic methanol market will continue to slump.
The reason why the domestic methanol industry is seriously affected by imported methanol is that an important reason is that the methanol products in the Middle East are low-priced methanol produced from natural gas or oil field associated gas. Of the 180 domestic methanol production enterprises, only 23 are natural gas methanol production enterprises. The total annual production capacity is 6 million tons, accounting for only 29% of the domestic total methanol production capacity. The rest is more than 140 coal-to-methanol enterprises and 13 companies. Coke Oven Gas to Methanol Enterprise. Although there are many methanol production enterprises in China, the scale is generally small and the competitiveness is not strong. According to the "2010-2015 China's methanol industry investment analysis and forecast report" issued by China Investment Advisors, the average size of China's methanol companies is only about 120,000 tons per year, with an average annual output of only 60,000 tons, and the scale of the equipment is small. High consumption of energy and materials, unreasonable use of resources, and high investment per unit of production capacity have resulted in high production costs and lack of international competitiveness. In comparison, the largest methanol plant in the world has reached an annual production capacity of 1.7 million tons. Investment in unit production capacity has dropped significantly, and cost competitiveness has been greatly enhanced. In addition, foreign large-scale methanol plants mostly use natural gas as raw material, adopt natural gas two-stage conversion or autothermal conversion technology, and are more mature and reliable than coal-based methanol technology, and the conversion scale is less affected by the scale of methanol.
The market pattern of weak demand and difficult promotion of downstream products will not change much in 2011. As an important downstream dimethyl ether industry in the methanol industry, 2011 will also usher in a major bearish. The "National Standard for Town Gas Dimethyl Ether" will be formally implemented on July 1, 2011. This standard clearly stipulates that dimethyl ether can only be burned as a town gas, and it also requires dedicated bottles. The implementation of the "Standard" indicates that the road to dimethyl ether mixed with liquefied gas will be sealed, excess production capacity will be further aggravated, and the upstream methanol industry will be dragged down. Although methanol gasoline has occupied a market with unique advantages, it is expected that it will usher in a wide range of promotion in 2011, but the lack of policy is an insurmountable obstacle to the development of methanol gasoline. Only when the favorable policies are introduced, the spring of the industry is expected to emerge.
In addition, currently methanol downstream products, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, DMF, glyphosate and other varieties of serious excess capacity, including formaldehyde overcapacity of 32%, acetic acid surplus of 46%, DMF surplus of 50%, especially glyphosate At present, domestic production capacity has exceeded 22% of global demand, which directly led to weak demand and spread to the methanol industry.
In view of the current status of the methanol industry, Hu Qianlin proposed: First, actively promote the development of alcohol ether fuels, formulate and introduce low-proportion methanol gasoline, dimethyl ether mixed burning and other related alcohol ether fuel industry or national standards, open the application of alcohol fuel, Digest excess capacity. The second is to actively carry out methanol deep processing technology research, extend the product chain, when the methanol companies apply for downstream product projects, the state can give preferential policies to promote the development of downstream products as soon as possible, and stimulate the consumption of methanol. The third is to strictly control the total production capacity, take measures such as large-scale pressure, capacity replacement and other methods, eliminate backward production capacity, reduce costs and improve competitiveness. Fourth, vigorously support large-scale methanol and dimethyl ether enterprises with development potential to carry out technological transformation in terms of energy conservation and emission reduction, increase economic efficiency, and accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure.
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