In 2014, China's LED upstream chip technology will continue to improve, and production capacity will be accelerated. However, corporate performance will be differentiated. The survival of some small-scale and low-tech chip companies will become more and more difficult, and the epitaxial chip companies will become more and more difficult. The number will gradually decrease and the concentration will be further improved.
The localization of epitaxial chips is optimistic. Around the year of 2010, the LED industry experienced a large-scale investment boom. Since 2011, the production capacity has been gradually released, showing a stage of overcapacity, which is expected to be effectively alleviated by the end of 2014.
With the urgent need for energy saving and emission reduction, LED will become the mainstream light source in the field of general lighting, and the demand for epitaxial chip products will also grow rapidly. However, as far as the whole year is concerned, the fierce competition in the chip segment will continue in 2014. The current situation of low gross profit margin in the low-end market will be difficult to change, and the reality of the overall profitability of the industry cannot be ignored. Therefore, upgrading the technical level, scientifically adjusting the investment scale and product structure has become a realistic choice for most epitaxial chip manufacturers.
In the interview, the reporter learned that some domestic chip products have gradually approached the level of foreign brand enterprises in terms of technology and performance, reflecting a high cost performance, but there is room for further improvement in yield and performance stability. It is also the main reason for determining the localization rate of chips. Some midstream packaging companies said that they have already recognized the domestically produced chips to a certain extent, and the use of domestic brands of chips is also their wish.
The localization rate of LED chips will continue to increase. Among the domestic chips, the acceptance of current low-power chips is relatively higher, while the high-power chips have higher requirements on technology, performance and reliability, and the localization level will lag behind the low-power chips. However, in general, the technical level, cost performance and market acceptance of domestically produced epitaxial chips are constantly improving. From the perspective of the cooperation between packaging companies and epitaxial chip companies in the first quarter of this year, it is believed that the market performance of epitaxial chip companies will be good in 2014. In 2013.
The pattern of epitaxial chip links will change how many chip companies will exist in the future. The 70 respondents believe that there will be 5-10 companies in the chip segment; 12 respondents believe that there will be oligopoly, leaving 3-5 companies .
For 2014, how should upstream enterprises respond to changes in the industrial structure, 60 survey respondents believe that upstream companies will horizontally integrate to respond to changes in the industrial landscape, while some respondents believe that vertical integration.
Vertical integration is the main form of competition in the LED industry, but vertical integration is very difficult, requires capital, and risks are high. There are many cases of vertical integration failure in the industry.
The future competition requires a high degree of integration of resources, and it will be realized in the way of the upper and lower-level outstanding enterprise alliances in China. Only enterprises will learn to let Lee go further.
The reporter learned that the current competition in the upstream chip segment of LED seems to have entered a stage of white-hot. In 2013, the chip makers including Jingyuan Optoelectronics and Sanan continued to make preparations for future development. Whether it is horizontal integration or vertical integration, or overseas integration, win-win is an important measure. It is a huge test for the company's own capital, technology, talents, management, etc.
Chip profit margins continue to compress a set of research data on chip prices and gross margins. For the change in chip prices in 2014, the number of respondents who believe that chip prices will still fall is 70, and the number of respondents who believe that chip prices will remain the same as in 2013. 30. Most respondents who believe that chip prices have fallen are considered to have a decline of around 10, while the vast majority of respondents believe that the price of chips will not fall too much in 2014 compared with the decline of 20-30 in previous years. From the supplier's situation, the magnitude and timing of price updates and price adjustments are also slowing down.
Some other respondents believe that the price of chips will have a peak trough every year. For example, the price may be higher in March-July, and may be lower in July-December. In the whole year, the change in chip prices should be Performance was flat in 2013. In addition, in the survey of chip companies' gross profit margin changes, 47 survey respondents believe that the gross profit margin of domestic LED chip companies remained at 20-30 in 2014, and 30 respondents believe that chip companies' gross margin will remain at 10-20.
In recent years, the gross profit margin of chip companies has been continuously compressed, but the space will be reduced to a certain extent. For epitaxial chip companies, the minimum gross profit margin should be maintained at 20 or above. In addition to management and other expenses, there will be profit, otherwise it will basically Fall into a loss. From this perspective, it is not high for chip companies to maintain a gross margin of 20-30.
Vigorously developing the lighting market CSA survey data shows that in the market where LED chip companies should focus on increasing development in 2014, 90 survey respondents chose lighting, and 10 survey respondents believe that they should focus on increasing the development of special customized markets.
From the perspective of overall lighting, the current penetration rate of LED lighting is not high. With the decline of technology and cost, it is showing its huge development potential, and the backlight and display market are gradually becoming saturated, and the room for growth will not be large. However, whether it is lighting, backlighting or display, it is already in the state of the Red Sea. Instead, it is a small market with a small share of special customization. If companies can seize one or two fields, they may have a chance to make good profits.
The data also shows that for the main focus of LED chip technology development in 2014, 40 survey respondents believe that the main focus of LED chip technology development is to reduce costs; 35 respondents believe that it is necessary to continue to improve chip light efficiency; another 25 survey The object believes that it is necessary to improve reliability.
Compared with previous years, the industry has reduced the importance of chip light efficiency. However, light efficiency is an important indicator for measuring LED chips, and there is still much room for improvement. Improving light efficiency is still one of the concerns of enterprises. . In addition, the current price of the product is very important in the alternative market stage. The reliability of domestic LED chips is constantly improving, and it is also the trend of the times.
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