At the Boao Forum, two heavy news about the automotive industry came together. President Xi Jinping stated on April 10 that “China will greatly ease market access, and the next step will be to relax the restrictions on foreign-invested shares, especially the restrictions on foreign investment in the auto industry as soon as possible.†At the same time, “the import tariffs on automobiles will be reduced considerably.â€
The two heavy news about the auto industry directly brought ripples to the automotive sector in the capital market.
Among them, A shares, the news has just been announced, Yaxing buses and other vehicle companies went straight to the daily limit in early trading, but the stock price was quickly suppressed by the "market rationality"; the most powerful car sector, it is a car accessories Subdivided varieties, including the Dongan Power, including parts and components stocks have been hugely bought in the daily limit.
The performance of Hong Kong stocks seems even more dramatic. The auto distributors that have imported imported luxury cars, such as Zhengtong Automobile, Yongda Auto, and Zhongsheng Holdings, have all experienced significant price increases, among which Zhengtong Automobile has soared by more than 12%.
In fact, the A-share market also has similar varieties. However, the SINOMACH has suspended trading for planning major issues and therefore missed this stock "show".
Two paths appear
Although the market is expected to lower domestic import tariffs and limit shareholding ratios, it seems to many in the industry that the two major references to this debut are not exactly the same as the “expected differences†previously imagined.
On the one hand, under the background that the domestic automobile industry has achieved significant improvement in competitiveness, the modest reduction of tariffs was previously considered by some to be promising;
On the other hand, previous views generally believed that the traditional auto stocks were not yet ready for release. Therefore, the state’s top position is beyond market expectations.
In any case, judging from the current signs, the automobile industry, as one of the largest import and export industries, is expected to become the first industry to make industrial changes under the background of Sino-US trade friction. At the same time, however, it is worth emphasizing that, from the substantial relaxation of market access to the active expansion of imports, China has actually had arrangements and has no direct relationship with Sino-US trade frictions.
Going back, as early as this year’s “two sessions†in the country, the government work report has already proposed that we should expand the opening up of telecommunications, medical care, education, and pensions, and lower import tariffs on automobiles and some daily consumer goods.
The People's Daily also deliberately emphasized: "To further expand the opening up, China has its own adherence to its own policy. That is, China's pace of opening to the outside world has its own claims, demands and rhythm. Opening up to the outside world will not be at the expense of China's national interests. No one can expect that China will open its doors unrestrained and unprincipled under pressure from the outside world."
Reduce the structural impact of tariffs
Taxes on imported cars are usually made up of three parts: tariffs, consumption taxes and value-added taxes. These three factors together constitute an important factor in determining the final tax-paying price of imported cars.
However, as a whole, the impact of import tariff cuts on domestic high-end cars is relatively greater.
According to Northeast Securities estimates, if the tariff of imported vehicles gradually decreases from 25% to 5%, the price difference ratio of C-class vehicles will be significantly reduced, while the difference between B-class vehicles and A-class vehicles is relatively small. Therefore, the tariffs on imported C-class vehicles are reduced, which has a greater impact on domestic high-class cars. Imported A-class and B-class vehicles have less direct impact on domestic A-class and B-class vehicles.
However, coins always have two sides. For the purchaser, the price reduction of the C-class car will inevitably have a crowding effect on the B-class car, resulting in a relative increase in sales.
Of course, tariffs on imported cars are expected to decrease, and leading companies in the imported car market will benefit first.
State Machine Motors holds more than 20% of imported vehicles, and its agency brands are Jaguar Land Rover, Volkswagen, Ford, Chrysler, and Porsche. In 2017, the US-based Lincoln North Market and Tesla’s entire system were added.
Another huge group of dealers successfully picked up hot spots. After the news broke out, the huge group's stock price soared 5% yesterday. However, with the rationality of the market and the suspension of executives' plans for reduction, they ended up only 2.6%.
In fact, as a whole, the general view of people in the industry is that, in the current context, the gradual reduction of tariffs on imported vehicles will not have much impact on the domestic auto models and joint venture vehicles.
From the perspective of trend, in the context of globalization, reducing tariffs is actually the trend of the times. After years of development, China has cultivated a number of vehicle companies with strong independent brands, including SAIC, GAC, Great Wall Motors, and Geely Automobile. This is where the Chinese auto industry has dared to "greet the enemy".
For example, from the company's annual report in 2017, the company achieved 6.93 million units of total vehicle sales, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, more than double the market growth rate of 3.3%, and the overall development of the joint venture has seen both wings fly together. situation.
In terms of joint ventures, last year the company’s three major joint ventures performed strongly in the market with annual sales exceeding 2 million vehicles. SAIC Volkswagen sold 2.063 million units. Its sales volume ranked first in the domestic passenger car market; SAIC Motor’s 2 million vehicles exceeded 2 million for the first time; SAIC-GM-Wuling’s 2.15 million vehicles ranked first in sales in China.
In terms of autonomy, SAIC Autonomous Passenger Vehicles Roewe and MG sold 522,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 62.27%; SAIC Chase sold more than 71,000 vehicles, an increase of 54% year-on-year, and self-owned brand sales volume increased by 227,000 vehicles contributed 51.6 %, to become a new engine driving growth.
It is this kind of emboldenedness that SAIC Motor's stock price came to a bottom on April 10th. The logic behind this is: At the beginning stage, the market will be worried about the company's impact on the impact of the tariff reduction on imported vehicles; but after the worry, the market rationality will soon be restored and the funds will be bought on a bargain, which will help boost the stock price of the company. .
Releasing Stock Limits: Breakthrough Under Pressure
It is a topic of discussion for many years to liberalize the ratio limit. In recent years, the relevant departments of the state have repeatedly expressed their positions. In the industry's view, limiting the ratio of foreign investment stocks can be said to be based on the market for the right to speak, and then obtain technical models, it can be said to be worn on the foreign side. †While the auto industry’s stocks should be more open than foreign auto companies’ dreams, they involve multiple forces.
The China Automobile Association has clearly voiced opposition. One of its concerns is that it does not want China to become a processing plant for foreign products.
Dong Yang, executive vice president and secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, had previously made clear to the reporter of the Securities Times that “the automobile industry is not an ordinary manufacturing industry, but a strategic industry that supports the transformation and upgrading of the national economy. An economic power among the world's largest countries, Both of them are not car powerhouses, but in the new round of technological and industrial changes, the automobile industry will play a very important role, and the Internet of Things, mobile terminals, etc. will all use automobiles as their main carrier. Industries may become processing plants for foreign products."
At this time, the Central Government raised the background of opening shares more than once. It is also the Chinese car brand that has achieved considerable development. Product technology, research and development, manufacturing, sales channels, and services have all greatly improved and can be positive. Participate in the competition of joint venture brands. At the same time, the international economic environment has also undergone no small changes, attracting foreign investment, encouraging long-term investment, and gradually becoming an important issue for China’s reform and opening up.
According to Niu Dawei, a veteran automaker, it is necessary for domestic auto companies to continue to increase their efforts to increase their core competitiveness. “The household appliance and mobile phone industries are fully competitive, and independent home appliance brands have been well developed in the free competition. Although the mobile phone industry still has some way to go, the prospects for domestic mobile phones are still good. Therefore, independent brands are After the stocks ratio is released, it will not necessarily lead to catastrophe, but it will be able to break through under tremendous pressure."
However, some institutional sources believe that the probability of short-term occurrence is very low in terms of the subjective and objective conditions of the ratio of shares opened by conventional vehicles, and that the ratio of new energy vehicles in the free trade zone is expected to become a "lubricant".
It is worth noting that the NDRC has previously issued policies to restrict the expansion of fuel vehicle capacity. Therefore, most people believe that foreign-owned self-built factories do not have objective conditions to support them, and that new energy vehicles have opened up the ratio to become "pioneer troops," but This has little effect on the current new energy pattern.
The secondary market performance also echoes this. Yesterday, the new energy vehicle segment of the A-share market remained stable and divided. The best performer was Tesla's industrial chain supplier Xusheng. The stock price rose 6%. However, there is also a share price of blue-ray Huateng, an electric vehicle motor controller manufacturer. Lower limit.
Among the entire automotive sector, the strongest performance is not the entire vehicle but the auto parts industry.
Except for Fenglong’s stock limit due to the new shares, Dongan Power, which is mainly engaged in automobile engines and transmissions, and Dishengli, which is a manufacturer of aluminum alloy wheels, all have a strong daily limit. The stock prices of Xusheng Co., Ltd. and other parts and components manufacturing companies such as Beit Technology are strong. The gains also exceeded 6%. It can be seen that the fund’s view is that auto parts companies are most likely to grab red envelopes from the changes in the auto industry brought about by the liberalization of foreign investment shares and the reduction of import tariffs.
As for Hong Kong stocks, Beijing Automotive and Brilliance China were negatively impacted by the news, and share prices have all dropped sharply. Among them, Beijing Automobile's business has cooperated with Mercedes-Benz to build a factory in China to produce and sell, and Brilliance China cooperates with BMW to build a factory in China to produce and sell. Some market analysts believe that once the restrictions on foreign-owned vehicles are built in China, there is a possibility that These joint ventures have brought about some impact.
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