Since the fourth quarter, the oil and chemical industries have expanded their capacity too quickly, and downstream capacity to withstand high prices has weakened. Demand has slowed down. Prices of many products have been declining, and market conditions have fluctuated.
According to the latest data bulletin from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, in November, the number of 64 kinds of petroleum and chemical products that were tracked, the production of which had increased by 57 over the same period of last year, accounted for 89.1%, of which 39% had an increase of more than 10%. The species accounted for 60.9%; the output decreased by 7 species, accounting for 10.9%. Among the 144 kinds of petroleum and chemical products that were tracked, there were 50 kinds of increase in price compared with the previous month, accounting for 34.7%, and there were 83 kinds of decline in prices, accounting for 57.6%; there was price increase compared with the same period of last year. 67 species accounted for 46.5%, and 57 species declined, accounting for 39.6%.
The national oil and chemical production and prices in November have two characteristics:
Production maintained a good momentum. In November, the country’s crude oil production increased slightly, producing 14.84 million tons of crude oil, up 2.4% year-on-year; natural gas production rose strongly and production reached 4.75 billion cubic meters, an increase of 35.4% year-on-year. This is a single month this year. The highest increase. In November, production of the “two alkalis” continued to increase due to the successive production of new production capacity, and the production of caustic soda reached 1.092 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%; the production of organic chemical products also grew rapidly, especially the production of ethylene and methanol. In November, ethylene production was 682,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%; methanol production was 466,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%.
Product prices fell. In November, the prices of petroleum and chemical products continued to fluctuate drastically. Despite the existence of high energy and raw material costs in domestic chemical product prices, due to rapid capacity expansion, downstream demand growth slowed down and product market competition was fierce. This made price diving more common, showing a strong downward trend compared to the previous month, and many products even fell to varying degrees compared to the same period of last year.