The development direction of new energy vehicles that the Chinese government has been pushing may change. From the original main development of pure electric cars and plug-in hybrid vehicles to hybrid, electric and fuel cell technology to walk on many legs.

The prediction of this change of direction lies in a recent article by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. The article titled "Several Issues on the Work of Science and Technology" was published in the "Seeking Truth" magazine in early July. The article profoundly reflects the current status of the development of new energy vehicles. The industry therefore believes that the new energy policy currently being implemented in China will soon be adjusted, and traditional hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles may be regained favor.

Premier Wen Jiabao requires clear policy support

The 14th issue of "Qiushi" magazine published on July 16th published an important article by the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier Wen Jiabao: "Several Issues on Scientific and Technological Work." When talking about the development of new energy vehicles, Premier Wen Jiabao said that it is necessary to clarify policy support and other issues as soon as possible.

Wen Jiabao said that new energy is a new industry, and deploying strategic emerging industries, we are almost in sync with Western developed countries. From this point of view, opportunities are captured. However, from the perspective of progress in implementation, the problem is still relatively prominent. First, disorderly development, some locals are keen to set up stalls, repeated input and redundant construction; second, there is a lack of core technologies, and many fields are still at the starting stage and follow the imitation of foreign technology; Third, separation of resources, decentralization of science and technology resources, and disconnection of production, education and research. .

When it comes to the specific fields or products of new energy, the technical route and direction of development are still not very clear. For example, new energy vehicles, what is the direction of development and the ultimate goal, and now the development of hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles is not the final product, it is not very clear.

Premier Wen believes that China has made some progress in hybrid vehicles, but there is still a large gap between the technology and the developed countries. The development of electric vehicles has just begun. In general, it is still at the stage of primary exploration and tracking of foreign technology. Major equipment and materials are imported. The next step in the development of new energy vehicles must focus on solving issues such as technical route issues, key core technical issues, investment issues, and policy support issues that must be clearly identified and resolved as soon as possible.

The market acceptance of new energy vehicles is low

Premier Wen Jiabao’s recent article was interpreted by the industry as a dissatisfaction with the current new energy policy.

Over the past year, the Chinese government has been pushing for pure electric cars and plug-in hybrids. It is hoped that these technologies will help auto makers of their own brands surpass their multinational competitors. The traditional hybrid car has not been taken seriously. Before 2010, when the Chinese government discussed "green" cars, it had been bringing together hybrid, electric and fuel cell technologies. However, at the beginning of last year, the government began to have a soft spot for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

The industry has been transmitting the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020)" to be issued in July. It is a clear division of new energy models and energy-saving models, including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Automobiles are new energy vehicles, not plug-in hybrid vehicles. This division determines the amount of policy subsidy to be issued in the future, so that new energy vehicles with higher manufacturing costs will receive more subsidy.

Since then, the government has been crowding on this road. Last summer, the government introduced a policy of subsidizing electric vehicles (50,000 yuan) and hybrid vehicles (60,000 yuan) in the five major pilot cities. Under the leadership of the government, on August 16 last year, large-scale state-owned enterprises in a number of related fields formed the Electric Vehicle Alliance. They plan to jointly develop electric vehicles and related parts and components and build charging stations. In order to cooperate with the central government to introduce subsidies, provincial and municipal governments have also promised to provide subsidies. Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities in Guangdong Province have also been led by the government for the construction of electric vehicles.

However, while the government strongly supports the new energy automobile industry, the acceptance of the consumer market is still generally low. The reporter learned that private subsidies for new energy vehicles in Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen can reach up to 120,000 yuan. Under such an attractive subsidy system, there are still relatively few people who are interested.

Wang Liusheng, a senior analyst at China Merchants Securities New Energy, revealed to reporters that in its Shenzhen market, the purchase of private new energy vehicles is only BYD and Zhongtai. Shanghai has Chery, BYD, Lifan and other companies. There are only one company in other regions. In sales, consumers choose fewer models. And in these few choices, the purchase of a car with a similar price to a conventional gasoline car would require a much higher purchase cost for new energy vehicles. In addition to cost issues, consumers will also consider charging difficulties, high maintenance costs, and immaturity.

Public data shows that BYD introduced a dual-mode hybrid F3D M in 2008 and sold more than 300 vehicles in three years. As of today, the number of privately-owned electric vehicles purchased in Shanghai is only 10 vehicles.

Pure electric and hybrid in the game

According to Wang Liusheng, a senior analyst at China Merchants Securities New Energy, the choice of pure electric or hybrid power for China's new energy direction is actually a game of interests between private auto companies and Sino-foreign joint venture auto companies.

In China, BYD is the pioneer of private enterprises of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. BYD’s relevant sources disclosed to reporters that as of now, BYD has invested billions of dollars in the development of green cars.

"BYD's F3D M plug-in hybrid car and e6 pure electric car are still much more expensive than their gasoline counterparts, and the associated charging pile facilities are not in place. Consumers are also skeptical about the battery technology of pure electric vehicles. "A dealer selling BYD pure electric vehicles in Shenzhen told reporters.

“Previous policies were favorable to private enterprises, but if the policy changes, hybrid power technology and fuel technology are valued, this is likely to be more favorable to Japanese cars.” Compared with the private company BYD in the direction of pure electric, some The joint venture has secretly made efforts in hybrids.

Japan’s Honda believes that the ultimate solution for new energy vehicles is still fuel cell-powered vehicles, but the duration of the purely electric vehicle technology line that is an intermediate transition between hybrid and fuel cell drives may not be too long.

Honda recently announced that two flagship hybrid vehicles, C RZ and Insight, will be introduced into China by import in 2012. Relevant person in charge of the Honda China headquarters said in an interview with the media that Honda is still not optimistic about the promotion effect of electric vehicles in the Chinese market, and the company will continue to adhere to the hybrid energy-based new energy vehicle route.

Toyota's hybrid star product Prius [Overview Picture Forum] has accumulated sales of more than 3 million units worldwide, but it stopped production in 2010 due to poor sales. However, Matsuo Hideki, general manager of FAW Toyota Motor Sales Co., Ltd., still believes that considering various aspects of consideration, the distance traveled by electric vehicles still needs to be improved. His personal view is that the development space for hybrid vehicles will be even greater. Of course, in order to deal with China's support for pure electric vehicles, the plug-in hybrid Prius that Toyota is currently developing is in an experimental phase and the new Prius domestic work is still under preparation.

For the German and American cars, Volkswagen and GM are fully prepared for the mix. Such as the General Motors Cadillac Escalade [Review Picture Forum] hybrid vehicles are recognized in the domestic market, are currently in the state of the car, and Cadillac XTS concept car has appeared at last year's Beijing auto show, respectively, is a luxury Plug-in hybrid models, and an electric model that uses flexible fuel. The Volkswagen Group announced that it will start production of a series of plug-in hybrid vehicles from 2013/2014, while the hybrid version of the Volkswagen Touareg [Review Picture Forum] and the high-performance "R" version will also introduce hybrid vehicles.

Walking on multiple legs, delay in the planning of new energy automobile industry

However, Jia Xinguang, an expert in automotive industry analysis, believes that "at present, China's purely electric technology has its own limitations, and gasoline in hybrids is explosive, and methanol in fuel technology is toxic. Which direction is the most important? The market should give opportunities to experiment, improve upon problems found, and try to find a path that suits its own development from multiple experiments."

It is worth paying attention to the industry that, after Premier Wen Jiabao put forward questions on new energy vehicles that need to be solved, a news report on a methanol fuel seminar held in Shanghai recently was issued. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has upgraded methanol gasoline from a research pilot to an industrialization pilot. This will give a positive signal to methanol gasoline.

At the same time, the reporter was informed that at the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had designated three domestic automobile companies to produce a high proportion of methanol-gasoline vehicles. This is the first time that the national level has been leading the piloting of methanol gasoline promotion. In addition, an automotive brand responsible for technical experts told reporters that a low proportion of M15 methanol gasoline industry has been brewing for a long time, M15 methanol GB has been introduced. If this is true, the promotion of methanol gasoline in China will develop rapidly.

In addition, consistent with the Prime Minister's article on the street, we note that the new energy vehicle industry plan that was confirmed this month has been determined to be extended again. According to reports from overseas media, relevant national ministries and related persons said that the “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020)” will not be introduced in July and may be postponed until the end of this year. "Planning" pointed out that in the next decade, the cumulative production and sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million, of which "medium/heavy hybrid passenger vehicles account for more than 50% of passenger cars in annual sales." The specific financial investment involved and the amount of corporate subsidies still need to wait for superior approval.

On June 22, public information on the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that the "plan" has been basically completed and submitted to the State Council for approval. In retrospect, Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, told the media that the industry plan is expected to be announced in the first half of this year. After completion of the approval process, the plan can be announced, but so far the policy has quietly silenced.

Status and data

1. Last year, the Chinese government provided subsidies of up to 50,000 yuan and 60,000 yuan for plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles purchased by individuals in five pilot cities, including Shenzhen, where BYD is headquartered. However, subsidies did not attract customers. The central government allocated 5 billion yuan for this project. But a year later, only 100 million yuan has been claimed.

2. BYD has invested billions of dollars in developing green cars. However, public data shows that the total sales of the pure electric vehicle e6 are only 53, while the total sales volume of the plug-in hybrid model F3D M is only 338.

3. As of the first half of this year, Shanghai's privately-owned electric vehicles purchased only 10 vehicles. Previously, industry insiders predicted that the number of privately owned electric cars in Shanghai will reach 25,000 in 2012.

4. The competition between pure electric power and hybrid power has always existed. In the previous government support, pure electric power has always been emphasized, such as the 2010 regulations. In the subsidy for new energy vehicles, the subsidy of 60,000 yuan for pure electric vehicles is clearly defined, but the hybrid power is only 3,000 yuan.

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