A few days ago, Beijing and Jinan held a natural gas price adjustment hearing, which means that following the price adjustments in Shenyang, Shaanxi, Changsha, Lanzhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, natural gas “price surgesâ€. Further spread to the whole country.
In response, some analysts believe that the nationwide natural gas price increase hearing is aimed at the civilian natural gas field. Natural gas prices for industrial enterprises have been raised in advance in June this year. Therefore, the gas companies are not subject to the increase in the price of natural gas. Affected, and chemical product prices are now booming. It seems that the valuation of natural gas chemical listed companies can still be improved.
However, for listed companies using natural gas as raw materials and fuels, the operating performance in the fourth quarter should be based on "quantity" instead of "price", because the national shortage of natural gas will be further aggravated this winter.
Natural gas chemical industry and business climate did not meet the demand for natural gas in the cold winter of 2009. At that time, natural gas supply was shut off in some parts of China. Now that the “millennium cold†has not yet arrived, the “gas shortage†has already come back after the “diesel shortageâ€. . In this situation, the government and the competent authorities will still give priority to protecting civilian use.
On November 10, Liaotong Chemical announced that due to the serious shortage of natural gas supply from the main gas supplier Liaohe Oilfield,
From November 10, 2010 to March 25, 2011, the ammonia and urea plants of its subsidiary Liaohe Chemical Fertilizer Plant were shut down for maintenance.
The worst-hit area for natural gas shortages is in the southwest. Informed sources said that CNPC intends to suspend the production of large industrial gas users in the region for about 50 days. Natural gas will be cut off for 70 days, including Chitianhua and Lutianhua. Sichuan, Meifeng, Chuanhua, Jianfeng Chemical and other "head" urea production companies have felt the pressure of insufficient gas supply.
From late October to April of the following year, the demand for urea and other fertilizer products goes from light storage to spring plowing, and the market price of urea gradually enters the boom cycle. Affected by the nationwide power cuts, the urea market price started to start in September this year. At present, domestic urea factory, wholesale and retail prices have risen to 1,960 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, and 2,100 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of production cost, the domestic natural gas price increase was 0.23 yuan/cubic meter, and the pipeline transmission fee rose 0.08 yuan/cubic meter. Based on the production of 700 cubic meters of natural gas per ton of urea, the gas head urea production cost increased by an average of 217 yuan/ton. Taking Yuntianhua as an example, after the price increase, the production cost is 1,350 yuan/ton under full production, and the gross profit margin can reach 45%, which is basically the same as the gross profit margin of the interim financial report.
But this is the assumption of a full production situation. If raw natural gas is cut off, the high gross profit of Yuntianhua will be pulled down by low start-ups. With the completion of power cuts at the beginning of next year, the market price of urea is expected to decline, and the gross profit margin of Yuntianhua will further decline. Although from the perspective of the financial statements, Yuntianhua has already reserved more low-cost inventory for the peak season sales, but after the inventories are digested, the sales of gas-headed urea will also enter the high-cost era.
Yuntianhua's production dilemma is not only a microcosm of southwest “head†urea, but also a portrayal of national natural gas chemical companies.
Natural gas shortage became the norm. When the “gas shortage†approached, the start-up rate of chemical companies using natural gas as raw materials was generally less than 50%, and the enterprises suffered huge losses. The former had a loss of about 20 million yuan per month after shutdown due to natural gas cutoff in Dahua, Cangzhou, Hebei Province. After the loss, Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy was subject to natural gas price increase, resulting in a net profit reduction of 61 million yuan/year.
Natural gas chemical companies must be transformed to avoid future losses because natural gas shortages will become the norm in China. If last year's "gas shortage" made the corporate transition leap forward, then this year's "gas shortage" will make the decision to transform more determined.
According to reports, in November, many oil and gas fields under the three major oil companies were overloaded, and the daily production volume reached or reached the highest level in history. However, the gap still exists. Siwang Energy's report predicts that the domestic gas supply gap in the fourth quarter of this year will reach 771 million cubic meters, which is equivalent to the amount of the gap in the entire northern region when the national “gas shortage†broke out in 2009.
It is worth noting that, in order to make up for the winter shortfall, the relevant departments only deployed 610 million cubic meters of liquefied natural gas in advance to supplement winter supplies.
As a clean and efficient energy source, the consumption of natural gas has grown explosively in recent years in the context of energy conservation and emission reduction. In 2009, the apparent consumption of natural gas in China was about 90 billion cubic meters, of which 7.8 billion cubic meters were imported. Jiang Qian, Chief Energy Analyst of CIC Consulting, predicts that from 2010 to 2015, China's natural gas production growth will be around 8.5%, while consumption growth will be above 12%.
The main reason for the excessive demand growth is the low price. Prior to this, the National Development and Reform Commission notice required that all localities should sort out the price of natural gas for vehicles in accordance with the price ratio with the maximum retail price of gasoline No. 90 of not less than 0.75:1. Regarding this, some taxi drivers have reported that although vehicles use natural gas without gas, there is almost no difference in the distance to be used. Natural gas is still used as fuel in consideration of low prices.
The increase in demand will continue, and national natural gas price increases and supply cuts will continue to be staged.
In response, some analysts believe that the nationwide natural gas price increase hearing is aimed at the civilian natural gas field. Natural gas prices for industrial enterprises have been raised in advance in June this year. Therefore, the gas companies are not subject to the increase in the price of natural gas. Affected, and chemical product prices are now booming. It seems that the valuation of natural gas chemical listed companies can still be improved.
However, for listed companies using natural gas as raw materials and fuels, the operating performance in the fourth quarter should be based on "quantity" instead of "price", because the national shortage of natural gas will be further aggravated this winter.
Natural gas chemical industry and business climate did not meet the demand for natural gas in the cold winter of 2009. At that time, natural gas supply was shut off in some parts of China. Now that the “millennium cold†has not yet arrived, the “gas shortage†has already come back after the “diesel shortageâ€. . In this situation, the government and the competent authorities will still give priority to protecting civilian use.
On November 10, Liaotong Chemical announced that due to the serious shortage of natural gas supply from the main gas supplier Liaohe Oilfield,
From November 10, 2010 to March 25, 2011, the ammonia and urea plants of its subsidiary Liaohe Chemical Fertilizer Plant were shut down for maintenance.
The worst-hit area for natural gas shortages is in the southwest. Informed sources said that CNPC intends to suspend the production of large industrial gas users in the region for about 50 days. Natural gas will be cut off for 70 days, including Chitianhua and Lutianhua. Sichuan, Meifeng, Chuanhua, Jianfeng Chemical and other "head" urea production companies have felt the pressure of insufficient gas supply.
From late October to April of the following year, the demand for urea and other fertilizer products goes from light storage to spring plowing, and the market price of urea gradually enters the boom cycle. Affected by the nationwide power cuts, the urea market price started to start in September this year. At present, domestic urea factory, wholesale and retail prices have risen to 1,960 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, and 2,100 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of production cost, the domestic natural gas price increase was 0.23 yuan/cubic meter, and the pipeline transmission fee rose 0.08 yuan/cubic meter. Based on the production of 700 cubic meters of natural gas per ton of urea, the gas head urea production cost increased by an average of 217 yuan/ton. Taking Yuntianhua as an example, after the price increase, the production cost is 1,350 yuan/ton under full production, and the gross profit margin can reach 45%, which is basically the same as the gross profit margin of the interim financial report.
But this is the assumption of a full production situation. If raw natural gas is cut off, the high gross profit of Yuntianhua will be pulled down by low start-ups. With the completion of power cuts at the beginning of next year, the market price of urea is expected to decline, and the gross profit margin of Yuntianhua will further decline. Although from the perspective of the financial statements, Yuntianhua has already reserved more low-cost inventory for the peak season sales, but after the inventories are digested, the sales of gas-headed urea will also enter the high-cost era.
Yuntianhua's production dilemma is not only a microcosm of southwest “head†urea, but also a portrayal of national natural gas chemical companies.
Natural gas shortage became the norm. When the “gas shortage†approached, the start-up rate of chemical companies using natural gas as raw materials was generally less than 50%, and the enterprises suffered huge losses. The former had a loss of about 20 million yuan per month after shutdown due to natural gas cutoff in Dahua, Cangzhou, Hebei Province. After the loss, Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy was subject to natural gas price increase, resulting in a net profit reduction of 61 million yuan/year.
Natural gas chemical companies must be transformed to avoid future losses because natural gas shortages will become the norm in China. If last year's "gas shortage" made the corporate transition leap forward, then this year's "gas shortage" will make the decision to transform more determined.
According to reports, in November, many oil and gas fields under the three major oil companies were overloaded, and the daily production volume reached or reached the highest level in history. However, the gap still exists. Siwang Energy's report predicts that the domestic gas supply gap in the fourth quarter of this year will reach 771 million cubic meters, which is equivalent to the amount of the gap in the entire northern region when the national “gas shortage†broke out in 2009.
It is worth noting that, in order to make up for the winter shortfall, the relevant departments only deployed 610 million cubic meters of liquefied natural gas in advance to supplement winter supplies.
As a clean and efficient energy source, the consumption of natural gas has grown explosively in recent years in the context of energy conservation and emission reduction. In 2009, the apparent consumption of natural gas in China was about 90 billion cubic meters, of which 7.8 billion cubic meters were imported. Jiang Qian, Chief Energy Analyst of CIC Consulting, predicts that from 2010 to 2015, China's natural gas production growth will be around 8.5%, while consumption growth will be above 12%.
The main reason for the excessive demand growth is the low price. Prior to this, the National Development and Reform Commission notice required that all localities should sort out the price of natural gas for vehicles in accordance with the price ratio with the maximum retail price of gasoline No. 90 of not less than 0.75:1. Regarding this, some taxi drivers have reported that although vehicles use natural gas without gas, there is almost no difference in the distance to be used. Natural gas is still used as fuel in consideration of low prices.
The increase in demand will continue, and national natural gas price increases and supply cuts will continue to be staged.
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