China's petroleum and petrochemical industry is currently faced with the development environment at home and abroad, which can be described as complex and varied, with great challenges and opportunities. From an international perspective, the world petroleum and petrochemical industry has entered a new era of high oil prices, multiple risks, globalization, strong competition, emphasis on sustainable development, and further upgrading; from the domestic point of view, it is also facing a full opening of the market and further deepening reforms. The "four modernizations" (referring to the new type of industrialization, urbanization, marketization, and internationalization) have accelerated the pace, resource constraints have been aggravated, the pressure for sustainable development has increased, the economy has continued to develop steadily, and the market has a huge new space. Among them need to pay special attention to the following points:
The international oil market entered a period of high oil prices, the impact can not be underestimated by a variety of factors, the international oil price has continued to fluctuate since 2003, and repeatedly hit a record high. At present, although the excessively high oil price has already fallen, but considering all factors, the period of low oil prices is over forever and the international oil market has entered a period of higher oil prices, and its impact cannot be ignored.
Under the situation of high oil prices, the world's major oil resource countries and oil consumers have stepped up their energy strategy adjustments. The major oil consuming countries paid more attention to the use of global oil resources and increased the pace of “going globalâ€; while oil resource countries increased the efficiency of resource utilization, they also increased their control over their oil and gas resources and related industries. Around the world, the exploration and development of oil and gas and the investment and construction of oil and gas transportation channels have undergone fierce competition. While the competition for oil and gas resources has intensified, the uncertainties affecting international oil prices have also increased significantly, and the risks and difficulties for world oil and petrochemical companies to obtain a safe and stable supply of oil will also increase.
China, as a developing country in the oil and petrochemical industry, has not only become more difficult to “go global†in participating in international oil exploration and development, but also because developing countries are less able to afford high oil prices than developed countries, domestic prices, and international There is a gradual process of complete convergence of oil prices, so the domestic oil refining industry will continue to face tremendous pressure from increasing costs.
The center of gravity of the world's refining and chemical industry and the acceleration of regional economic integration will increase the status of China's oil and petrochemical industry and gradually integrate it into an international market dominated by regional economies since the 1990s, with China and India as The representative developing country's refining and chemical industry has grown rapidly, and the focus of the world's refining and chemical industry is gradually moving eastward. At present, the world's oil refining industry has taken the lead in Asia-Pacific and North America, followed by Western Europe. The proportion of refining capacity in the Asia Pacific region in the total capacity of the world has increased from 18.3% in 1992 to 26.1% in 2005 (24.5% in North America). With the rapid rise of Asia Pacific and the Middle East, the world's petrochemical industry is also moving eastward. Taking ethylene as the symbol, in 2005 Asia-Pacific ethylene production capacity accounted for 26.9% of the world's total production capacity (North America accounted for 30.3%, the Middle East accounted for 10%). It is expected that 1/2 of the world's new ethylene production capacity will be in the Middle East and 1/3 in Asia Pacific in the next five years. In 2010, the Middle East’s ethylene production capacity will account for 20% of the world’s total production capacity. Asia Pacific’s ethylene production capacity will surpass North America and be the top in the world. .
The relocation of the world's refining and chemical industry to the east will have enormous impact on Asia and China. First, the market competition and resource scramble in the Asia-Pacific region will intensify; second, the development of the refining industry in Asian developing countries will generally have new developments. In particular, China will quickly become Asia’s A major refining and production consumer country. Third, large European and American companies are accelerating their investment expansion and industrial transfer to the emerging refining and chemical markets in the Asia Pacific region. At the same time, they have also increased their exclusion and restrictions on China's newly emerging petrochemical powers; the fourth is the Asia Pacific region. The existing resources, markets, investment, technology, trade flow, pricing mechanism, and industrial division of labor in the petroleum and petrochemical industry will undergo new adjustments as the structure changes. Fifth, the international trade frictions within and outside the region will intensify.
In addition, under the impetus of economic globalization, the pace of regional economic integration and trade liberalization between China and neighboring countries will also accelerate. This has both opportunities and challenges for China's oil and petrochemical industry.
First, economic and trade cooperation in Northeast Asia will continue to advance in competition. In 2005, the oil consumption of the three countries in Northeast Asia was 677 million tons, accounting for 17.6% of the world's total. The dependence on foreign oil was 73% (about 43% in China and nearly 100% in Japan and South Korea). Three-quarters of the oil imports of the three countries rely on the Middle East, and the oil imports from the sea are mainly through the Straits of Malacca. China, Japan and South Korea are both major oil refining and petrochemical countries in the world. Japan and South Korea both regard China as their major exporter and investment development area for their petroleum and petrochemical products. In the future, the three countries will promote the free trade in the Northeast Asian region. There are competitions concerning oil and gas resources and markets, and Japan and South Korea have pressured China to increase exports of petroleum and petrochemical products. However, regional energy security, regional energy conservation and environmental protection, and regional oil and petrochemical There are common interests in market construction and other aspects, and there are certain complementarities in some petroleum and petrochemical products. Therefore, communication, cooperation and win-win situation will be the best way.
Second, the links between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait petrochemical industry will become even closer. Although there will be some resistance nowadays, cross-strait three links will be the general trend. As a result, Taiwan’s petrochemicals exports to the mainland and petrochemical investment will both increase, and refineries in the eastern coastal areas of China will face the competitive pressures from petrochemicals and petrochemical companies in Taiwan. At the same time, a large amount of net petrochemical raw materials imported by Taiwan also provided business opportunities for the export of surplus products from mainland petrochemical enterprises.
Third, the completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will promote bilateral cooperation and competition in the petroleum and petrochemical fields. The free trade zone will be completed in 2012 and will be the world's most populous free trade zone, ranking third in the world after the European Union and North America. China-ASEAN has both cooperation and competition in the petroleum and petrochemical fields: The petroleum and petrochemical industries in some countries in Southeast Asia regard China as one of the major target markets for crude oil, LNG, some petroleum and petrochemical products, and natural rubber, while China is Oil and gas exploration and development, construction of refinery and chemical engineering, etc. have also been used in Southeast Asia.
Fourth, the further development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the advancement of the China-Gulf Gulf Free Trade Area will further develop the complementary and mutually beneficial cooperation between China and foreign countries in energy and trade. China will become a long-term and stable export target market for crude oil, natural gas and bulk petrochemical products in these countries, as well as a partner in refining projects. The above-mentioned countries and regions will also become the main direction for China to “go global†in the fields of petroleum and petrochemicals and seek joint ventures and cooperation. one.
The full opening of the domestic market will give China's oil and petrochemical industry a new situation of diversified competition. On December 11, 2006, China's refined oil wholesale sector was opened to the outside world, marking the end of the transition period for China’s accession to the WTO and the full opening of the domestic oil and petrochemical market. The foreign capital will enter China's oil and petrochemical market on a larger scale, and many domestic private enterprises will also accelerate their entry into the petroleum and petrochemical fields, thus giving China's petroleum and petrochemical industry a new situation of diversified competition.
In the middle and late 1990s, especially since China joined the WTO in 2001, foreign oil and petrochemical companies have begun to enter China. The areas involved include offshore and onshore oil and gas exploration and development, oil refining and oil marketing, petrochemicals, and gas development and utilization. Related logistics infrastructure construction, emerging energy and downstream processing of petrochemical industries. As of the end of 2005, Exxon Mobil, Shell, BP, Total, DuPont and Bayer have invested more than US$10 billion in China. There are three major refineries with foreign equity participations already completed or under construction and allowed to build; foreign investment has accounted for about 70% of the high-end market for China’s lubricants; and the number of large-scale ethylene plants for foreign-invested joint ventures in China has reached three, and its Equity ethylene production capacity has accounted for about 13% of the country's total production capacity. BP, BASF and Shell have become the largest foreign oil, petrochemical and lubricant companies in China. At present, the focus of foreign investment in China is mainly on the fields of midstream and downstream businesses, refined oil sales terminals, and the production of high value-added petroleum and petrochemical products and their derivative deep-processed products. Some major oil and petrochemical companies in the Middle East, Southeast Asia and South Asia have also been and are entering the Chinese market. It can be expected that with the full liberalization of the domestic market and the full implementation of tariff reduction commitments, foreign investment will set off a new wave of investment and development in China and will develop in a normal, localized and integrated manner. Industry brings greater pressure for competition.
At the same time, with the gradual relaxation of the state's development policy for private enterprises, especially the introduction of 36 non-public companies, China's private oil and chemical companies have made great progress. By the end of 2005, China's petrochemical and chemical private enterprises above designated size had grown to 9,572, with total assets of 223.37 billion yuan. The company realized sales revenue of 368.93 billion yuan that year and total investment of 28.85 billion yuan that year, accounting for 7.1% of the total investment in the industry. At present, private petroleum and petrochemical enterprises have been involved in lubricant oil production and sales, petroleum asphalt, refined oil sales, small and medium-sized refineries, synthetic fibers, gas development and marketing, and related storage and transportation logistics, and have begun to enter the upstream area. Some private enterprises have ranked among the top 10 domestic lubricants, petroleum asphalt, and synthetic fibers. In the field of synthetic fibers, in particular, the production capacity of petrochemical private-owned polyester filaments has accounted for 88% of the country's total production capacity. The production capacity of polyester polymers and polyester staple fibers has accounted for over 60% of the country's total production capacity. PTA production capacity has accounted for the total national production capacity. 17.7%. Many private enterprises have embarked on an intensive road to development and have begun joint ventures with foreign investors.
Therefore, the new period of China's petroleum and petrochemical industry will face a new situation in which a large-scale state-owned oil and petrochemical company takes the lead and foreign and domestic private oil and petrochemical companies participate in the diversified competition.
With the continuous deepening of the reform of the economic system, the government supervision of China's petroleum and petrochemical industry will gradually be included in the legal system, and the policy environment will undergo great changes. In order to meet the needs of the marketization process, the Chinese government will deepen the financial and taxation financial system. The reforms include the implementation of fuel tax, consumption tax reform, value-added tax reform, the merger of domestic and foreign-funded income taxes, the reform and improvement of the resource tax system, and the reform of the exchange rate mechanism. At the same time, the government will also reform and improve the energy market, energy price formation mechanism, and oil and petrochemical market supervision system after the market is fully opened, and timely introduce anti-monopoly law, energy law, oil and gas law, etc., while further promoting state-owned enterprises. Reforms will deepen the reform of the investment and financing system. All this indicates that China will completely get rid of the old management model during the period of planned economy and fully embark on the management track of the market economy. In this regard, we must have enough ideological preparations.
Increased pressures for sustainable development at home and abroad Since entering the new century, from the international to the domestic, the degree of concern for sustainable development has increased significantly, and the petroleum and petrochemical industry has received much attention as an important energy and raw material industry.
From an international point of view, the first is the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005. Developed countries have taken a step forward in reducing waste-water and exhaust emissions. Although the "Kyoto Protocol" is fully implemented in China although it will take place after 2012, the international pressure to limit waste water and waste gas emissions is gradually increasing from the present to the transitional period of 2012; secondly, the emission standards for clean fuels in Europe, America and Japan are currently leading. In China's eight years or so, this has brought great pressure on China's oil quality to meet international standards and increase exports. Third, Western developed countries have intensified their petrochemical chemical products and downstream downstream processed products and related products in recent years. The invisible green barriers have brought a greater impact on the export of China's petrochemical and its downstream processed products and on international trade. It is expected that this pressure will increase, and the resulting international trade friction will increase. .
From the domestic point of view, starting from the coordinated development of economic and social stability, China has made building a conservation-minded society, developing a recycling economy, and promoting sustainable development as its priorities. In the future, the pace of domestic clean fuel upgrading will increase, and the speed will accelerate. On July 1, 2007, the country will implement the Euro III emission standard, and on July 1, 2010, the country will implement the Euro IV emission standard, which is for domestic refineries. The technical progress and cost pressure will be significantly increased. At the same time, the state has intensified efforts to monitor the environmental safety of refinery companies in densely populated areas along the coast of the Yangtze River. This trend will only increase in the future and will not weaken.
While ushering in a rare period of strategic development opportunities, resource constraints tend to be serious for some time to come. China’s petroleum and petrochemical industry will usher in a rare period of strategic development opportunities: China’s car ownership will increase from 28 million in 2004 to 2010. The annual production of 60 million vehicles will reach approximately 100 million by 2020; oil consumption will increase from 318 million tons in 2004 to at least 350 million to 380 million tons in 2010, and reach at least 450 million tons in 2020; The demand for coal, diesel, diesel, and the three major synthetic materials will be at least 1.7 times that of 2000, and the ethylene production capacity will reach around 16 million tons.
On the other hand, resource constraints tend to be serious. In 2010, China’s crude oil gap will be at least 150 million tons, and the degree of dependence on foreign oil will increase from about 43% to more than 50%. By 2020, the gap in China’s crude oil will reach 250 million tons, and the foreign dependence will reach 60%. . In addition, the contradiction between the oil refining industry to improve the quality of refined oil products and the production of chemical oils has intensified, and the contradiction between chemical oils, especially naphtha, will gradually appear.
The pressure for technological innovation has increased Although China's petroleum and petrochemical industry has made great achievements in its scientific and technological progress, the overall level of technological skills is only equivalent to the level of foreign countries in the mid-1990s, and there is still a large gap compared with foreign large companies. Mainly manifested in: the lack of original technological innovation capabilities, the lack of independent intellectual property rights and international leading core technologies and proprietary technologies, the application of basic research and forward-looking technology research is relatively weak; already developed oil refining technology is not yet able to meet the growing transportation Cleanliness requirements, especially those applicable to the production of Euro IV emission standards and ultra-low-sulfur clean fuels, need to be further accelerated; large-scale petrochemical equipment technologies, large-scale ethylene, polyethylene and other major petrochemical technologies rely on imports for a long time.
In contrast, foreign multinational petroleum and petrochemical companies continue to increase their research strength after mergers and acquisitions and continue to occupy a strong position in the technology market. At the same time, European, American and Japanese multinational petroleum and petrochemical companies have strengthened their control over advanced technologies and used their advantages in intellectual property protection and standardization to continuously strengthen the control and control of key technologies in China's petroleum and petrochemical industries. Some well-known multinational oil and petrochemical companies have applied for patents on organic chemicals, synthetic materials, and lubricants that account for about 60% of the total number of similar patents in China.
In addition, the rapid development and industrial upgrading of the domestic automobile, agriculture, textiles, chemical building materials, plastic packaging products, electronic appliances and rubber products industries, also raised an update on the upgrading of China's petroleum and petrochemical industry, research and development of new products, and extending the industrial chain. higher requirement. Therefore, if China's oil and petrochemical industry is to become bigger and stronger in the face of intensified competition and increased demands, it must further intensify technological innovation, accelerate the research and development of core technologies, and strive to achieve new breakthroughs in important areas.
The international oil market entered a period of high oil prices, the impact can not be underestimated by a variety of factors, the international oil price has continued to fluctuate since 2003, and repeatedly hit a record high. At present, although the excessively high oil price has already fallen, but considering all factors, the period of low oil prices is over forever and the international oil market has entered a period of higher oil prices, and its impact cannot be ignored.
Under the situation of high oil prices, the world's major oil resource countries and oil consumers have stepped up their energy strategy adjustments. The major oil consuming countries paid more attention to the use of global oil resources and increased the pace of “going globalâ€; while oil resource countries increased the efficiency of resource utilization, they also increased their control over their oil and gas resources and related industries. Around the world, the exploration and development of oil and gas and the investment and construction of oil and gas transportation channels have undergone fierce competition. While the competition for oil and gas resources has intensified, the uncertainties affecting international oil prices have also increased significantly, and the risks and difficulties for world oil and petrochemical companies to obtain a safe and stable supply of oil will also increase.
China, as a developing country in the oil and petrochemical industry, has not only become more difficult to “go global†in participating in international oil exploration and development, but also because developing countries are less able to afford high oil prices than developed countries, domestic prices, and international There is a gradual process of complete convergence of oil prices, so the domestic oil refining industry will continue to face tremendous pressure from increasing costs.
The center of gravity of the world's refining and chemical industry and the acceleration of regional economic integration will increase the status of China's oil and petrochemical industry and gradually integrate it into an international market dominated by regional economies since the 1990s, with China and India as The representative developing country's refining and chemical industry has grown rapidly, and the focus of the world's refining and chemical industry is gradually moving eastward. At present, the world's oil refining industry has taken the lead in Asia-Pacific and North America, followed by Western Europe. The proportion of refining capacity in the Asia Pacific region in the total capacity of the world has increased from 18.3% in 1992 to 26.1% in 2005 (24.5% in North America). With the rapid rise of Asia Pacific and the Middle East, the world's petrochemical industry is also moving eastward. Taking ethylene as the symbol, in 2005 Asia-Pacific ethylene production capacity accounted for 26.9% of the world's total production capacity (North America accounted for 30.3%, the Middle East accounted for 10%). It is expected that 1/2 of the world's new ethylene production capacity will be in the Middle East and 1/3 in Asia Pacific in the next five years. In 2010, the Middle East’s ethylene production capacity will account for 20% of the world’s total production capacity. Asia Pacific’s ethylene production capacity will surpass North America and be the top in the world. .
The relocation of the world's refining and chemical industry to the east will have enormous impact on Asia and China. First, the market competition and resource scramble in the Asia-Pacific region will intensify; second, the development of the refining industry in Asian developing countries will generally have new developments. In particular, China will quickly become Asia’s A major refining and production consumer country. Third, large European and American companies are accelerating their investment expansion and industrial transfer to the emerging refining and chemical markets in the Asia Pacific region. At the same time, they have also increased their exclusion and restrictions on China's newly emerging petrochemical powers; the fourth is the Asia Pacific region. The existing resources, markets, investment, technology, trade flow, pricing mechanism, and industrial division of labor in the petroleum and petrochemical industry will undergo new adjustments as the structure changes. Fifth, the international trade frictions within and outside the region will intensify.
In addition, under the impetus of economic globalization, the pace of regional economic integration and trade liberalization between China and neighboring countries will also accelerate. This has both opportunities and challenges for China's oil and petrochemical industry.
First, economic and trade cooperation in Northeast Asia will continue to advance in competition. In 2005, the oil consumption of the three countries in Northeast Asia was 677 million tons, accounting for 17.6% of the world's total. The dependence on foreign oil was 73% (about 43% in China and nearly 100% in Japan and South Korea). Three-quarters of the oil imports of the three countries rely on the Middle East, and the oil imports from the sea are mainly through the Straits of Malacca. China, Japan and South Korea are both major oil refining and petrochemical countries in the world. Japan and South Korea both regard China as their major exporter and investment development area for their petroleum and petrochemical products. In the future, the three countries will promote the free trade in the Northeast Asian region. There are competitions concerning oil and gas resources and markets, and Japan and South Korea have pressured China to increase exports of petroleum and petrochemical products. However, regional energy security, regional energy conservation and environmental protection, and regional oil and petrochemical There are common interests in market construction and other aspects, and there are certain complementarities in some petroleum and petrochemical products. Therefore, communication, cooperation and win-win situation will be the best way.
Second, the links between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait petrochemical industry will become even closer. Although there will be some resistance nowadays, cross-strait three links will be the general trend. As a result, Taiwan’s petrochemicals exports to the mainland and petrochemical investment will both increase, and refineries in the eastern coastal areas of China will face the competitive pressures from petrochemicals and petrochemical companies in Taiwan. At the same time, a large amount of net petrochemical raw materials imported by Taiwan also provided business opportunities for the export of surplus products from mainland petrochemical enterprises.
Third, the completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will promote bilateral cooperation and competition in the petroleum and petrochemical fields. The free trade zone will be completed in 2012 and will be the world's most populous free trade zone, ranking third in the world after the European Union and North America. China-ASEAN has both cooperation and competition in the petroleum and petrochemical fields: The petroleum and petrochemical industries in some countries in Southeast Asia regard China as one of the major target markets for crude oil, LNG, some petroleum and petrochemical products, and natural rubber, while China is Oil and gas exploration and development, construction of refinery and chemical engineering, etc. have also been used in Southeast Asia.
Fourth, the further development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the advancement of the China-Gulf Gulf Free Trade Area will further develop the complementary and mutually beneficial cooperation between China and foreign countries in energy and trade. China will become a long-term and stable export target market for crude oil, natural gas and bulk petrochemical products in these countries, as well as a partner in refining projects. The above-mentioned countries and regions will also become the main direction for China to “go global†in the fields of petroleum and petrochemicals and seek joint ventures and cooperation. one.
The full opening of the domestic market will give China's oil and petrochemical industry a new situation of diversified competition. On December 11, 2006, China's refined oil wholesale sector was opened to the outside world, marking the end of the transition period for China’s accession to the WTO and the full opening of the domestic oil and petrochemical market. The foreign capital will enter China's oil and petrochemical market on a larger scale, and many domestic private enterprises will also accelerate their entry into the petroleum and petrochemical fields, thus giving China's petroleum and petrochemical industry a new situation of diversified competition.
In the middle and late 1990s, especially since China joined the WTO in 2001, foreign oil and petrochemical companies have begun to enter China. The areas involved include offshore and onshore oil and gas exploration and development, oil refining and oil marketing, petrochemicals, and gas development and utilization. Related logistics infrastructure construction, emerging energy and downstream processing of petrochemical industries. As of the end of 2005, Exxon Mobil, Shell, BP, Total, DuPont and Bayer have invested more than US$10 billion in China. There are three major refineries with foreign equity participations already completed or under construction and allowed to build; foreign investment has accounted for about 70% of the high-end market for China’s lubricants; and the number of large-scale ethylene plants for foreign-invested joint ventures in China has reached three, and its Equity ethylene production capacity has accounted for about 13% of the country's total production capacity. BP, BASF and Shell have become the largest foreign oil, petrochemical and lubricant companies in China. At present, the focus of foreign investment in China is mainly on the fields of midstream and downstream businesses, refined oil sales terminals, and the production of high value-added petroleum and petrochemical products and their derivative deep-processed products. Some major oil and petrochemical companies in the Middle East, Southeast Asia and South Asia have also been and are entering the Chinese market. It can be expected that with the full liberalization of the domestic market and the full implementation of tariff reduction commitments, foreign investment will set off a new wave of investment and development in China and will develop in a normal, localized and integrated manner. Industry brings greater pressure for competition.
At the same time, with the gradual relaxation of the state's development policy for private enterprises, especially the introduction of 36 non-public companies, China's private oil and chemical companies have made great progress. By the end of 2005, China's petrochemical and chemical private enterprises above designated size had grown to 9,572, with total assets of 223.37 billion yuan. The company realized sales revenue of 368.93 billion yuan that year and total investment of 28.85 billion yuan that year, accounting for 7.1% of the total investment in the industry. At present, private petroleum and petrochemical enterprises have been involved in lubricant oil production and sales, petroleum asphalt, refined oil sales, small and medium-sized refineries, synthetic fibers, gas development and marketing, and related storage and transportation logistics, and have begun to enter the upstream area. Some private enterprises have ranked among the top 10 domestic lubricants, petroleum asphalt, and synthetic fibers. In the field of synthetic fibers, in particular, the production capacity of petrochemical private-owned polyester filaments has accounted for 88% of the country's total production capacity. The production capacity of polyester polymers and polyester staple fibers has accounted for over 60% of the country's total production capacity. PTA production capacity has accounted for the total national production capacity. 17.7%. Many private enterprises have embarked on an intensive road to development and have begun joint ventures with foreign investors.
Therefore, the new period of China's petroleum and petrochemical industry will face a new situation in which a large-scale state-owned oil and petrochemical company takes the lead and foreign and domestic private oil and petrochemical companies participate in the diversified competition.
With the continuous deepening of the reform of the economic system, the government supervision of China's petroleum and petrochemical industry will gradually be included in the legal system, and the policy environment will undergo great changes. In order to meet the needs of the marketization process, the Chinese government will deepen the financial and taxation financial system. The reforms include the implementation of fuel tax, consumption tax reform, value-added tax reform, the merger of domestic and foreign-funded income taxes, the reform and improvement of the resource tax system, and the reform of the exchange rate mechanism. At the same time, the government will also reform and improve the energy market, energy price formation mechanism, and oil and petrochemical market supervision system after the market is fully opened, and timely introduce anti-monopoly law, energy law, oil and gas law, etc., while further promoting state-owned enterprises. Reforms will deepen the reform of the investment and financing system. All this indicates that China will completely get rid of the old management model during the period of planned economy and fully embark on the management track of the market economy. In this regard, we must have enough ideological preparations.
Increased pressures for sustainable development at home and abroad Since entering the new century, from the international to the domestic, the degree of concern for sustainable development has increased significantly, and the petroleum and petrochemical industry has received much attention as an important energy and raw material industry.
From an international point of view, the first is the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005. Developed countries have taken a step forward in reducing waste-water and exhaust emissions. Although the "Kyoto Protocol" is fully implemented in China although it will take place after 2012, the international pressure to limit waste water and waste gas emissions is gradually increasing from the present to the transitional period of 2012; secondly, the emission standards for clean fuels in Europe, America and Japan are currently leading. In China's eight years or so, this has brought great pressure on China's oil quality to meet international standards and increase exports. Third, Western developed countries have intensified their petrochemical chemical products and downstream downstream processed products and related products in recent years. The invisible green barriers have brought a greater impact on the export of China's petrochemical and its downstream processed products and on international trade. It is expected that this pressure will increase, and the resulting international trade friction will increase. .
From the domestic point of view, starting from the coordinated development of economic and social stability, China has made building a conservation-minded society, developing a recycling economy, and promoting sustainable development as its priorities. In the future, the pace of domestic clean fuel upgrading will increase, and the speed will accelerate. On July 1, 2007, the country will implement the Euro III emission standard, and on July 1, 2010, the country will implement the Euro IV emission standard, which is for domestic refineries. The technical progress and cost pressure will be significantly increased. At the same time, the state has intensified efforts to monitor the environmental safety of refinery companies in densely populated areas along the coast of the Yangtze River. This trend will only increase in the future and will not weaken.
While ushering in a rare period of strategic development opportunities, resource constraints tend to be serious for some time to come. China’s petroleum and petrochemical industry will usher in a rare period of strategic development opportunities: China’s car ownership will increase from 28 million in 2004 to 2010. The annual production of 60 million vehicles will reach approximately 100 million by 2020; oil consumption will increase from 318 million tons in 2004 to at least 350 million to 380 million tons in 2010, and reach at least 450 million tons in 2020; The demand for coal, diesel, diesel, and the three major synthetic materials will be at least 1.7 times that of 2000, and the ethylene production capacity will reach around 16 million tons.
On the other hand, resource constraints tend to be serious. In 2010, China’s crude oil gap will be at least 150 million tons, and the degree of dependence on foreign oil will increase from about 43% to more than 50%. By 2020, the gap in China’s crude oil will reach 250 million tons, and the foreign dependence will reach 60%. . In addition, the contradiction between the oil refining industry to improve the quality of refined oil products and the production of chemical oils has intensified, and the contradiction between chemical oils, especially naphtha, will gradually appear.
The pressure for technological innovation has increased Although China's petroleum and petrochemical industry has made great achievements in its scientific and technological progress, the overall level of technological skills is only equivalent to the level of foreign countries in the mid-1990s, and there is still a large gap compared with foreign large companies. Mainly manifested in: the lack of original technological innovation capabilities, the lack of independent intellectual property rights and international leading core technologies and proprietary technologies, the application of basic research and forward-looking technology research is relatively weak; already developed oil refining technology is not yet able to meet the growing transportation Cleanliness requirements, especially those applicable to the production of Euro IV emission standards and ultra-low-sulfur clean fuels, need to be further accelerated; large-scale petrochemical equipment technologies, large-scale ethylene, polyethylene and other major petrochemical technologies rely on imports for a long time.
In contrast, foreign multinational petroleum and petrochemical companies continue to increase their research strength after mergers and acquisitions and continue to occupy a strong position in the technology market. At the same time, European, American and Japanese multinational petroleum and petrochemical companies have strengthened their control over advanced technologies and used their advantages in intellectual property protection and standardization to continuously strengthen the control and control of key technologies in China's petroleum and petrochemical industries. Some well-known multinational oil and petrochemical companies have applied for patents on organic chemicals, synthetic materials, and lubricants that account for about 60% of the total number of similar patents in China.
In addition, the rapid development and industrial upgrading of the domestic automobile, agriculture, textiles, chemical building materials, plastic packaging products, electronic appliances and rubber products industries, also raised an update on the upgrading of China's petroleum and petrochemical industry, research and development of new products, and extending the industrial chain. higher requirement. Therefore, if China's oil and petrochemical industry is to become bigger and stronger in the face of intensified competition and increased demands, it must further intensify technological innovation, accelerate the research and development of core technologies, and strive to achieve new breakthroughs in important areas.
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